Holiday Ops 2019 / 2020 Loot Box Value Guide
13Disciple | 16-Dec-2019
As a WGNA CC, I was provided with 80 Holiday boxes (20 of each type) for the purpose of making content on Twitch and for this article. I've supplemented this data with users that sent me their videos and screen shots.
Special thanks to fellow WGNA CC JollyGrim - who assisted in data entry, and performed a majority of the back-end calculations by leveraging his background in professional data analytics!
Special thanks to fellow WGNA CC JollyGrim - who assisted in data entry, and performed a majority of the back-end calculations by leveraging his background in professional data analytics!
...you are still paying real money for a chance at prizes that are otherwise unavailable to you via direct purchase.
These boxes are yet again an excellent gold value. If you want to put gold or premium time (purchased for gold) in your account then I would recommend purchasing large (gift) boxes. DO NOT BUY boxes with the intent of finding a specific tank. Even with a high percent chance, there is never a guarantee.
Before you click buy make sure you answer this question: If I don't get the tank I want am I still going to be happy with this purchase?
If yes, then boxes are the most monetarily efficient way to populate your account with gold.
My full criticisms for Holiday Ops Large Boxes are at the end of the article.
Before you click buy make sure you answer this question: If I don't get the tank I want am I still going to be happy with this purchase?
If yes, then boxes are the most monetarily efficient way to populate your account with gold.
My full criticisms for Holiday Ops Large Boxes are at the end of the article.
Gold per USD Value
A note on data: I want to thank everybody that has submitted data to me. I only kept data that I could verify as accurate through screenshots or video recordings. Because of this I've sacrificed quantity for quality.
You can find the raw data for this article here (link coming later).
Data will be updated as I collect more through out the coming weeks.
You can find the raw data for this article here (link coming later).
Data will be updated as I collect more through out the coming weeks.
Below is the raw gold, credits, garage slots, and premium tanks mined from the data I have.
Last updated 16-Dec-19 | Total Boxes 2,311
Last updated 16-Dec-19 | Total Boxes 2,311
Total Gold Value: 2,195,444 / 2,311 boxes = 950 gold per box average
If we only use the raw gold and gold value of duplicate tanks (assume all duplicates) Total Gold Value: 1,752,350 / 2,311 boxes = 758 gold per box average In Terms of Total Gold Value per Box, this year I've decided to add some confidence intervals.
Based on the original 950 gold per box average. Upper 95th percentile confidence interval is 1017, and lower 95th percentile confidence interval is 883. |
These values are roughly 100 gold per box or ~ 13% lower than last years averages - however that could be attributed to the significantly larger data size over last year. It's also reasonable considering this year there are fewer tier 5s, and no tier 7s, with an increase in tier 2 and 3.
Holiday Ops Year |
Boxes |
Total Gold Value or Tank Value |
Gold / Box Avg |
18 -19 |
479 |
518,138 |
1081 |
19 - 20 |
2,311 |
2,195,444 |
950 |
18 - 19 |
479 |
420,450 |
878 |
19 - 20 |
2,311 |
1,752,350 |
758 |
However, not all loot box packages are the same value. This table determines the gold value of each package based on 758 gold / box.
* For the sake of this calculation I rounded up each cost by 1 cent.
If we consider the frequent war chest bundle of 25,000 gold for $100 USD which yields 250 gold per $1 USD, then it becomes obvious the actual value of these bundles.
Drop Rates (Your Drop Rates Will Vary)
I've decided to post my drop rates, but keep in mind my data set is still quite small and the actual drop rates my vary by a wide margin.
Drop Rate Ornaments
In each box you will draw a random ornament from tier 1 to tier 5 in addition to the guaranteed tier 5.
In each box you will draw a random ornament from tier 1 to tier 5 in addition to the guaranteed tier 5.
Drop Rate by Tier
It has been hypothesized that the game will determine the tier of drop - and then fulfill it with a random vehicle you are missing. Once you own all the vehicles of that tier, then when that tier is pulled again you will get a random drop of any available tank for that tier. If this is accurate (and I believe it to be) - the drop rates of each specific tank are inaccurate. This hypothesis was stood for my pull of 80 boxes and was still accurate with all of the data I entered that was sent to me that I could verify. Since this may be accurate I've decided to post drop rates by tier.
Once some one can send me definitive evidence I will continue to believe what I see in the data.
We took the average drop by tier and then multiplied those odds against the number of boxes to pull this relatively simple drop rate.
It has been hypothesized that the game will determine the tier of drop - and then fulfill it with a random vehicle you are missing. Once you own all the vehicles of that tier, then when that tier is pulled again you will get a random drop of any available tank for that tier. If this is accurate (and I believe it to be) - the drop rates of each specific tank are inaccurate. This hypothesis was stood for my pull of 80 boxes and was still accurate with all of the data I entered that was sent to me that I could verify. Since this may be accurate I've decided to post drop rates by tier.
Once some one can send me definitive evidence I will continue to believe what I see in the data.
We took the average drop by tier and then multiplied those odds against the number of boxes to pull this relatively simple drop rate.
Drop Rate By Tank
If you don't believe that gift boxes mechanically remove your already owned vehicles from the pool of draw-able vehicles by tier, then I've built a spread sheet for drop rates by tanks as well. However since partnered CC's are given new tanks for content, and likely had all except the E75 TS (though the system may have counted a rental as ownership), we could reason that CC's would have an unusually high drop rate of the Obj 703 II (122). It's likely this would also be reflected in the total population as well, but to a lesser extent. The data below backs up this hypothesis.
The opposing argument could be that the backlash over the IS3a made wargaming consider increasing the drop rate of the Obj 703 II (though I disagree with this Assertion).
If you don't believe that gift boxes mechanically remove your already owned vehicles from the pool of draw-able vehicles by tier, then I've built a spread sheet for drop rates by tanks as well. However since partnered CC's are given new tanks for content, and likely had all except the E75 TS (though the system may have counted a rental as ownership), we could reason that CC's would have an unusually high drop rate of the Obj 703 II (122). It's likely this would also be reflected in the total population as well, but to a lesser extent. The data below backs up this hypothesis.
The opposing argument could be that the backlash over the IS3a made wargaming consider increasing the drop rate of the Obj 703 II (though I disagree with this Assertion).
It has also been hypothesized that the drop rates are lowered after the first few days of sales. I have found this to be false in my data.
"Luckiest" Boxes
For a bit of humor I've added in the luckiest boxes based on average gold value. We don't have a large enough data set to show a normalization of expected equality across all of these, but I thought it was humorous to list anyway. CC boxes are at the bottom of the list.
3D Skins for Tier 10 Tanks
The 3D skins for the T110E4, E100, Obj 140, AMX 13 105, Jag E100, and Obj 430U are also available from loot boxes as a random pull in addition to regular random draws. Once you pull all 6 3D Styles, you are unable to pull duplicates. In our data set the average number of boxes to reach all 6 skin styles was 76.
Julia Winnfield
This year sees the return of another double 0-skill tank commander. She joins last year's Simon Claws as the two best crew members in the game. They both have 0-skill BiA and a 0-skill Sixth Sense, along with a fully trained 3rd skill. This makes them the best tank commanders, and the best crew members in the game. They will train twice as quickly as a regular 0-Skill crew member and three times faster than a regular crew member.
Similar to the 3D skins, you can only draw her once making it difficult to actually pinpoint the odds. In my data sets the average number of boxes to obtain Julia Winnfield was 18 among those that did pull her. There are data points of people pulling 114 boxes that have yet to draw her. This statistic is of low confidence. (this means that Julia Winnfield will complete her 4th skill at the same EXP that it takes a 0-skill crew member to complete their 3rd skill, or the same EXP that it takes a regular crew member to achieve 2 skills) |
Placing the best available crew members in the game behind a randomized 'pay for a chance' mechanic is something I cannot condone.
Criticism for Holiday Ops Large Boxes
Wargaming is able to sell the Holiday Ops Large Boxes and will not label them as 'loot' boxes because technically you'll get your money's worth with in game goods even though those in game goods are randomized. You will likely pull a value that is much better than the base value of the boxes according to my data. While technically and legally not loot boxes and not defined as gambling, you are still paying real money for a chance at prizes that are otherwise unavailable to you via direct purchase.
I'm sure wargaming will sell more boxes on the premise that many players will fish for the premium tanks that are only available in boxes, or even the skins that are also exclusive to the large boxes (I fall into this category). Not all content in the boxes becomes available for direction purchase (Type 59). Even when it does we don't know when or for how long (3D skins from the prior year). Keeping some content permanently behind this random mechanic, along with not announcing when they will be for sale direct adds to the pressure of gambling for your chance now.
I full expect the Obj 703 II to go on sale when the rest of the tree is released to the client (or sooner). I also believe the E75 TS will be featured for direct sale in Q1 of 2020. However that is all speculation. Many players do not want to wait for that sale while others are driving around in their randomized winnings. The only recourse is to keep paying for a random chance at one. This inevitably leads to additional sales, but it is a deplorable sales tactic. I would be far happier to endorse gift boxes if every item was available (for a higher price even) outside of the boxes or at least has a date when (if?) it will become available for direct sale, so buyers can go in knowing how long the wait will be.
I full expect the Obj 703 II to go on sale when the rest of the tree is released to the client (or sooner). I also believe the E75 TS will be featured for direct sale in Q1 of 2020. However that is all speculation. Many players do not want to wait for that sale while others are driving around in their randomized winnings. The only recourse is to keep paying for a random chance at one. This inevitably leads to additional sales, but it is a deplorable sales tactic. I would be far happier to endorse gift boxes if every item was available (for a higher price even) outside of the boxes or at least has a date when (if?) it will become available for direct sale, so buyers can go in knowing how long the wait will be.
Largely overlooked by the community, and more reprehensible is the double 0-skill commanders. There has been no other way to obtain these rare crew members. Placing the best available crew members in the game behind a randomized 'pay for a chance' mechanic is something I cannot condone. Wargaming needs to make these crew members available to everyone by either direct purchase for money, in game currency, or rewards. The best crew members in the game should not be hidden and walled off behind a pay for a chance mechanic.
Special Thanks To:
JollyGrim, Gharvar, K___, SykoticTX, JimmyCrib, DrvUMad, Geldahar, Guido1212, Drakonis, Devilfish, Zuul66, PubbieLogic, u/orcanax, u/teamvictoire, u/no00ob, u/PzSniper, u/Deadlock595, u/lumberjackmm, u/JuIngong, u/HolyGigi, u/raymie_y, u/Dyke_Dastardly, u/zx00wow, u/schinkiwinki, u/HighlighterFTW, u/Schootingstarr, u/squawk77, u/Dashadower, u/Sloef, u/RC51Man, u/someone_FIN, u/Pixel_Highwaymen, u/Abdico, Kyoto28, Ifindoubt_flatout, Tomolone, Corax, Vojtech, General_Jake, HAN_Y0L0, venom286, ShadowDancer27, Avalon304, CodeNameSly, Pakka77, Bonfor, mereedtank2, FrozenKemp, Centauri_Tyridius, HaphazardOsprey, AndrewSledge
I had hundreds of messages between Reddit, WoT Forums, and Discord. If I missed your name I sincerely apologize. I'm only human, if you reach out I'm happy to add you to the list!
If you would like your username to link to a Twitch or YouTube channel, please contact me on Discord.
JollyGrim, Gharvar, K___, SykoticTX, JimmyCrib, DrvUMad, Geldahar, Guido1212, Drakonis, Devilfish, Zuul66, PubbieLogic, u/orcanax, u/teamvictoire, u/no00ob, u/PzSniper, u/Deadlock595, u/lumberjackmm, u/JuIngong, u/HolyGigi, u/raymie_y, u/Dyke_Dastardly, u/zx00wow, u/schinkiwinki, u/HighlighterFTW, u/Schootingstarr, u/squawk77, u/Dashadower, u/Sloef, u/RC51Man, u/someone_FIN, u/Pixel_Highwaymen, u/Abdico, Kyoto28, Ifindoubt_flatout, Tomolone, Corax, Vojtech, General_Jake, HAN_Y0L0, venom286, ShadowDancer27, Avalon304, CodeNameSly, Pakka77, Bonfor, mereedtank2, FrozenKemp, Centauri_Tyridius, HaphazardOsprey, AndrewSledge
I had hundreds of messages between Reddit, WoT Forums, and Discord. If I missed your name I sincerely apologize. I'm only human, if you reach out I'm happy to add you to the list!
If you would like your username to link to a Twitch or YouTube channel, please contact me on Discord.